Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike
have been lending, borrowing, crashing - and recovering
- their way through an extraordinary range of financial
crises. Each time, the experts have chimed, ''this time
is different'' - claiming that the old rules of
valuation no longer apply and that the new situation
bears little similarity to past disasters. With this
breakthrough study, leading economists Carmen Reinhart
and Kenneth Rogoff definitively prove them wrong.
Covering sixty-six countries across five continents,
''This Time Is Different'' presents a comprehensive look
at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us
through eight astonishing centuries of government
defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes - from
medieval currency debasements to today's subprime
catastrophe. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, leading
economists whose work has been influential in the policy
debate concerning the current financial crisis,
provocatively argue that financial combustions are
universal rites of passage for emerging and established
market nations. The authors draw important lessons from
history to show us how much - or how little - we have
learned.Using clear, sharp analysis and comprehensive
data, Reinhart and Rogoff document that financial
fallouts occur in clusters and strike with surprisingly
consistent frequency, duration, and ferocity. They
examine the patterns of currency crashes, high and
hyperinflation, and government defaults on international
and domestic debts - as well as the cycles in housing
and equity prices, capital flows, unemployment, and
government revenues around these crises. While countries
do weather their financial storms, Reinhart and Rogoff
prove that short memories make it all too easy for
crises to recur. An important book that will affect
policy discussions for a long time to come, ''This Time
Is Different'' exposes centuries of financial
missteps. |
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