"Precision ... Statistical and Mathematical Methods
in Horse Racing" thoroughly discusses the mathematical
and statistical methods in handicapping and betting
techniques. Differentiations, combinatorics, normal
distribution, kernel smoothing and other mathematical
and statistical tools are introduced. The jargons and
equations are kept to a minimum so that it is easy to
understand for most readers. More than 20 professional
programs are freely available to download, which can
allow readers to easily apply the methodology introduced
in the book. This book can be divided into three main
parts: horse handicapping (Chapters 2-6), wagering
(Chapters 7-9) and theories in practices (Chapters
10-11). Chapter 1 will explain why long term gains are
possible in horse racing. About horse handicapping, we
will start with analysing racing forms in Chapter 2.
Other handicapping factors such as weight carried,
jockeys, trainers and pedigrees will be discussed in
Chapter 3. Some advanced statistical methods, such as
chi-square test and kernel smoothing, will be introduced
in Chapter 4 to further analyse those handicapping
factors discussed in previous chapters. The following
two chapters are about probability estimations. In
Chapter 5, normal distribution and multinominal logistic
regression are introduced in estimating winning
probability of each race horse. In Chapter 6, we will
talk about some methods in misconceptions in estimating
placed probability. Two main concepts in wagering, Kelly
criterion and hedging, will be discussed in Chapters 7
and 8. To hit exotic pools, those theories in
combinatorics in Chapter 9 will definitely help the
readers. The author will share his experiences in
betting syndicate in Chapter 10, and tell you how to be
a successful professional horseplayer in the last
Chapter. Some readers may find the mathematics in this
book difficult, but the free program will take your pain
away and do all the calculations. You can simply apply
all the professional formulae by no more than a click,
and pick your horses like an expert analyst. As an
awardee in Asian-Pacific Mathematics Olympiad, the
author abandoned his career as an actuary and became a
key member in a gambling syndicate. This book was
reprinted in the 4th edition in Hong Kong, ranked #2 in
the best-selling chart in the international Chinese
weekly Yazhou Zhoukan, and now available
worldwide. |
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