Ethnonationalist Conflict in Postcommunist States
investigates why some Eastern European states
transitioned to new forms of governance with minimal
violence while others broke into civil war. In Bulgaria,
the Turkish minority was subjected to coerced
assimilation and forced expulsion, but the nation
ultimately negotiated peace through institutional
channels. In Macedonia, periodic outbreaks of insurgent
violence escalated to armed conflict. Kosovo's internal
warfare culminated in NATO's controversial bombing
campaign. In the twenty-first century, these conflicts
were subdued, but violence continued to flare
occasionally and impede durable conflict resolution. In
this comparative study, Maria Koinova applies historical
institutionalism to conflict analysis, tracing
ethnonationalist violence in postcommunist states to a
volatile, formative period between 1987 and 1992. In
this era of instability, the incidents that brought
majorities and minorities into dispute had a profound
impact and a cumulative effect, as did the interventions
of international agents and kin states. Whether the
conflicts initially evolved in peaceful or violent ways,
the dynamics of their disputes became self-perpetuating
and informally institutionalized. Thus, external
policies or interventions could affect only minimal
change, and the impact of international agents subsided
over time. Regardless of the constitutions, laws, and
injunctions, majorities, minorities, international
agents, and kin states continue to act in accord with
the logic of informally institutionalized conflict
dynamics. Koinova analyzes the development of those
dynamics in Bulgaria, Macedonia, and Kosovo, drawing on
theories of democratization, international intervention,
and path-dependence as well as interviews and extensive
fieldwork. The result is a compelling account of the
underlying causal mechanisms of conflict perpetuation
and change that will shed light on broader patterns of
ethnic violence.
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