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The great economic boom times in American history
have come because of fortuitous discoveries, acts of god
if you like. Natural resources (coal first, then oil)
fueled vast economic and industrial expansions, which in
turn helped create and supply new markets. The last
genuine economic game changer was the technology boom of
the 1990s, which gave the U.S. a global competitive
advantage for a while based on electronics and silicon.
One of the first writers and analysts in the U.S. to
predict that the tech boom would lead to a period of
sustained economic growth was Charles Morris. In
defiance of the recessionary times (in 1990), he saw the
coming boom. Now, in 2013, he sees the threshold of
another. This time the gift is natural gas. The amount
and distribution of gas in American shale is so vast
that it has the potential to transform the manufacturing
economy, creating jobs across the country from
California to Pittsburgh, and requiring a new
infrastructure that will benefit the nation as a whole.
Because of fracking, jobs that once would have been
outsourced abroad will return home, America can become a
net exporter of energy, and cheap energy will provide
the opportunity for innovation and competition. America
can anticipate being energy independent within a decade,
and remain so for a century. The International Energy
Institute was forced to tear up its estimates for the
U.S.'s energy capacity, so profound is the potential and
scale of gas. Supported by other complementary factors,
the U.S. ought to be approaching the future with a
robust self-confidence it has not experienced in a
while. But we have a political system that has the
capacity to spoil the benefits of this huge boon. If the
wealth locked in the continental shelf is not shared for
the general economic good, but is instead exploited in
short-term profiteering, then many of the opportunities
that exist will be choked off by a few very rich
corporations. Managing the great bonus of the vast store
of cheap energy is going to become a defining political
challenge in the years ahead.
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