Forty years ago, ''The Limits to Growth'' study
addressed the grand question of how humans would adapt
to the physical limitations of planet Earth. It
predicted that during the first half of the 21st century
the ongoing growth in the human ecological footprint
would stop-either through catastrophic ''overshoot and
collapse''-or through well-managed ''peak and
decline.''So, where are we now? And what does our future
look like? In the book ''2052,'' Jorgen Randers, one of
the co-authors of ''Limits to Growth,'' issues a
progress report and makes a forecast for the next forty
years. To do this, he asked dozens of experts to weigh
in with their best predictions on how our economies,
energy supplies, natural resources, climate, food,
fisheries, militaries, political divisions, cities,
psyches, and more will take shape in the coming decades.
He then synthesized those scenarios into a global
forecast of life as we will most likely know it in the
years ahead.The good news: we will see impressive
advances in resource efficiency, and an increasing focus
on human well-being rather than on per capita income
growth. But this change might not come as we expect.
Future growth in population and GDP, for instance, will
be constrained in surprising ways-by rapid fertility
decline as result of increased urbanization,
productivity decline as a result of social unrest, and
continuing poverty among the poorest 2 billion world
citizens. Runaway global warming, too, is likely.So, how
do we prepare for the years ahead? With heart, fact, and
wisdom, Randers guides us along a realistic path into
the future and discusses what readers can do to ensure a
better life for themselves and their children during the
increasing turmoil of the next forty years. |
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